Forecasting of electricity consumption in Santa Cruz, Davao del Sur using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56183/plepist.v4i1.664Palavras-chave:
forecasting, electricity consumption, SARIMA model, Santa Cruz, Davao del SurResumo
Electricity consumption is the quantity of electric energy used by devices to produce the desired output. However, inefficiencies in energy management can lead to power shortages, increased costs, and supply instability. This study aimed to forecast the electricity consumption of Santa Cruz, Davao del Sur, from 2025 to 2029 using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. Historical monthly electricity consumption data from 2020 to 2024, obtained from Davao del Sur Electric Cooperative, Inc. (DASURECO), was analyzed to identify trends and seasonal patterns. The SARIMA (2,1,0) (1,0,0) [12] model was determined to be the most suitable for forecasting, based on statistical criteria such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Z-test. Before forecasting 2025-2029 electricity consumption, model validation was conducted by forecasting 2024 values and comparing them with the actual 2024 monthly electricity consumption data, confirming high accuracy through error metrics. The forecasted results indicate moderate fluctuations in electricity consumption, with an overall trend of slight decline and stabilization after 2025. This is likely due to industrial supply reliability, energy-efficient technologies, and conservation programs. The findings provide valuable insights in planning infrastructure development, optimizing electricity distribution, and ensuring a sustainable energy future for Santa Cruz, Davao del Sur.
Referências
Aksöz, A., Oyucu, S., Biçer, E., & Bayındır, R. (2024, May). Analysis of SARIMA Models for Forecasting Electricity Demand. In 2024 12th International Conference on Smart Grid (icSmartGrid) (pp. 767-771). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/icSmartGrid61824.2024.10578181.
Business World. (2025, February 4). Manufacturing growth slows in Jan. Business World. https://www.bworldonline.com/top-stories/2025/02/04/650829/manufacturing-growth-slows-in-jan
Çam, E., Hungerford, Z., Schoch, N., Miranda, F.P., & de Leon, C.D.Y. (2024). Electricity 2024. International Energy Agency.
CEIC. (2024, July 27). Philippines electricity consumption. Economic Indicators | CEIC. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/philippines/electricity-generation-consumption-and-sales/electricity-consumption
Department of Energy. (2019). 2019 Power Situation Report. https://www.doe.gov.ph/sites/default/files/pdf/electric_power/2019-power-situation-report.pdf
Department of Energy. (2022). 2022 Power Situation Report. https://doe.gov.ph/power-sector-situation?
Department of Energy (2023). National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Program. https://doe.gov.ph/national-energy-efficiency-and-conservation-program
Elsaraiti, M., Ali, G., Musbah, H., Merabet, A., & Little, T. (2021, April). Time series analysis of electricity consumption forecasting using ARIMA model. In 2021 IEEE Green technologies conference (GreenTech) (pp. 259-262). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/GreenTech48523.2021.00049
Ember. (2024, May). Global Electricity Review 2024. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/05/Report-Global-Electricity-Review-2024.pdf
Estremera, S. (2020, October 18). Stable power, stable economy. SunStar Publishing Inc. https://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/feature/stable-power-stable-economy
Francisco, K. A. (2022). Electricity Supply Interruptions in the Philippines: Characteristics, Trends, Causes (No. 2022-48). PIDS Discussion Paper Series.
Global Energy Monitor. (2024, July 17). Santa Cruz power station (Philippines) - Global Energy Monitor. https://www.gem.wiki/Santa_Cruz_power_station_%28Philippines%29?
International Energy Agency. (2024). Executive summary – Electricity Mid-Year Update - July 2024 – Analysis - IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-mid-year-update-july-2024/executive-summary
Leigh, I., Bauer, L., Paras, M. A., Mastrandrea, M., Wara, M., Steinmetz-Silber, N., & Edelberg, W. (2023, April 27). Ten economic facts about electricity and the clean energy transition. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ten-economic-facts-about-electricity-and-the-clean-energy-transition/
McGrath, A., & Jonker, A. (2024, August 13). Load Forecasting. IBM. https://www.ibm.com/topics/load-forecasting#:~:text=Accurate%20load%20forecasting%20ensures%20there,balance%20and%20stability%20of%20the
NBP. (2022, January 11). The Critical Role of Nuclear Power For The Philippines. https://www.nuclearbusiness-platform.com/media/insights/the-critical-role-of-nuclear-power-for-the-philippine
NEDA. (2022). CY 2022 ANNUAL REGIONAL ECONOMIC SITUATIONER. https://nro11.neda.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Final-CY-2022-ARES-Report_Davao-Region.pdf
Padillo, M. (2022, September 28). Sta. Cruz to introduce industrial tourism. Edge Davao. https://edgedavao.net/latest-news/2022/09/sta-cruz-to-introduce-industrial-tourism/
Parreño, S. (2022). Analysis and forecasting of electricity demand in Davao del Sur, Philippines. International Journal on Soft Computing, Artificial Intelligence and Applications, 11(1/2), 25-33. doi: 10.5121/ijscai.2021.11202
Philippine Statistics Authority. (2025, January 31). GDP posted a growth of 7.1 percent in the third quarter of 2021. Philippine Statistics Authority. https://psa.gov.ph/content/gdp-posted-growth-71-percent-third-quarter-2021
Reyes, J. L. R., Sosa, G. U., Funes, F. J. G., Ángeles, B. R., Baez, I. F., & Baez, M. F. (2022). Statistical Analysis and SARIMA Forecasting Model Applied to Electrical Energy Consumption in University Facilities. Científica, 26(2), 1-22. doi: 10.46842/ipn.cien.v26n2a03
Ritchie, H., Rosado, P., & Roser, M. (2024, February 26). Energy production and consumption. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption
Song, Y., Shahzad, U., & Paramati, S. R. (2023). Impact of energy infrastructure investments on renewable electricity generation in major Asian developing economies. Australian Economic Papers, 62(1), 1-23. doi: 10.1111/1467-8454.12282
Sunnexdesk & Sunnexdesk. (2021). Mindanao Power Shortages. SunStar.
Xue, X., & Wang, Z. (2021). Impact of electricity shortages on productivity: Evidence from manufacturing industries. Energy Engineering, 118(4), 995-1008. doi: 10.32604/EE.2021.014613
Downloads
Publicado
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 2026 Almira Asani, Reyniel Lopez, Nicole Segara, Kahlel Xander Martel, Aleliah Babes Sarcauga, Nahur I. Hasan
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
